Sep. 2, 2010 (Business Wire) -- Research and Markets (http://www.researchandmarkets.com/research/5e86f1/vietnam_power_repo) has announced the addition of the "Vietnam Power Report Q3 2010" report to their offering.
Business Monitor International's Vietnam Power Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, power associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Vietnam's power industry.
The new Vietnam Power Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 1.43% of Asia Pacific regional power generation by 2014, with the risk of power shortages if generation expansion falls below the required level. BMIs Asia Pacific power generation assumption for 2009 is 7,308 terawatt hours (TWh), representing an increase of 2.6% over the previous year. We are forecasting an increase in regional generation to 9,725TWh by 2014, representing a rise of 26.2% in 2010-2014.
Asia Pacific thermal power generation in 2009 totalled an estimated 5,849TWh, accounting for 80.0% of the total electricity supplied in the region. Our forecast for 2014 is 7,600TWh, implying a 23.7% growth that reduces the market share of thermal generation to 78.1%. This is thanks largely to environmental concerns promoting renewable sources, hydro-electricity and nuclear generation. Vietnams thermal generation in 2009 was an estimated 49.8TWh, or 0.85% of the regional total. By 2014, the country is expected to account for 1.11% of thermal generation in the region.
For Vietnam, oil accounted for an estimated 22% of 2009 primary energy demand (PED), followed by gas at 10%, coal at 16% and hydro-power with 4%. Direct burning of wood and waste materials contributes a further 48% to overall energy consumption. Regional energy demand is forecast to reach 5,334mn toe by 2014, representing 24.6% growth from the estimated 2009 level. Vietnams estimated 2009 energy market share of 1.76% is set to rise to 2.17% by 2014. An estimated 36TWh of hydroelectric demand in 2009 is forecast to reach 55TWh by 2014, with its share of the Asia Pacific hydro market rising from 3.87% to 4.17% over the period.
Vietnam is now ranked sixth, just below Malaysia, in BMIs updated Power Business Environment Ratings, thanks largely to the growth potential of power consumption and energy demand, plus healthy scores in several other categories. It should be able to pull further away from Thailand below, and has longer-term potential to challenge Malaysia above it.
BMI is now forecasting Vietnamese real GDP growth averaging 5.92% per annum (pa) between 2010 and 2014, with a 2010 assumption of 4.40%. The population is expected to expand from 88.0mn to 94.1mn by 2014, with per capita GDP and electricity consumption set to increase by 45% and 57% respectively. Power consumption is expected to increase from an estimated 64TWh in 2009 to 115TWh in 2014, providing a slight theoretical supply surplus if generation grows at no less than our assumed average annual rate of 10.2% (2010-2014). There is, however, a real risk of electricity shortages if the power industry cannot deliver adequate new capacity as demand soars.
Between 2010 and 2019, we are forecasting an increase in Vietnamese electricity generation of 110.1%, which is at the top of the range for the Asia Pacific region. This equates to 42.2% in 2014-2019, down from 47.7% in 2010-2014. PED growth is set to decrease from 47.0% in 2010-2014 to 40.3%, representing 106.2% for the entire forecast period. Hydro generation is expected to rise by 105% between 2010 and 2019, with thermal power generation forecast to increase by 113% over the same period. More detailed long-term BMI power forecasts can be found later in this report.
Key Topics Covered:
- Executive Summary
- SWOT Analysis
- Industry Overview
- Industry Forecast Scenario
- Key Risks To BMIs Forecast Scenario
- Country Snapshot: Vietnam Demographic Data
- Methodology
Companies Mentioned:
- Electricity Of Vietnam
For more information visit http://www.researchandmarkets.com/research/5e86f1/vietnam_power_repo.
Research and Markets
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